Multi-headed monster – and growing

The phenomenon of modern-day piracy at sea is fast becoming a major global problem of massive proportions – even in the same league as issues such as  climate change and the global financial crisis. Rapidly changing trends in pirate operations are adding both to the international threats posed by piracy as well as the costs and the level of counter-responses by affected nations.

The fact that piracy has spread to northern waters on some of the busiest shipping lanes around Europe;
International criminal operations may also be entering the picture;
Piracy is being politicised and adopted as a means to drive political causes;
The accompanying threat of piracy-linked terrorism is growing with Al-Qaeda now also being implicated;
Tense international relations between opposing powers are possibly being affected by clandestine activities taking place under the guise of piracy and may even include nuclear arms smuggling;
Major insurance companies are under immense pressure and devising new insurance models to counter the threat to their business;
International peace-keeping and food-relief operations such as in the Horn of Africa are directly under threat; and
Oil and other strategic supplies to major nations such as Japan are under threat.

Growing international naval response

In response to the growing number of pirate attacks, affected nations from Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East have come together to launch a joint naval operation to counter part of the threat.

This hugely costly exercise – probably one of the largest joint naval operations since World War 2, barring peace-time naval exercises – has seen the deployment of an international flotilla consisting of European naval vessels and maritime patrol aircraft that are part of the EU Naval Force (EU NAVFOR); American and European vessels operating within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and led by the United States Navy’s Combined Task Force 151 (CTF151) with a mandate from the United Nations to conduct counter-piracy operations; and navy vessels from various other nations such as China and Iran operating independently.

International legal and treaty issues, however, are complicating the military response to piracy. The overall international naval flotilla, also referred to as the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), does not have a UN mandate to conduct counter-piracy operations. However, the UN has mandated “combined task forces” (CTFs) such as the US-led CTF151 to conduct counter-piracy operations, and nations without authority to act against piracy work together in CTF 150.

CTF 151 is working very closely with the US State Department to finalise an agreement with one of the nations in the area that will allow CTF 151 and coalition forces to disrupt, deter, capture and hold suspected pirates accountable for their actions. The task force expects authority to be granted within this week.

Meanwhile, the EU NAVFOR, for its part, has launched Operation ATALANTA to escort merchant vessels carrying food from the World Food Program (WFP), protect vulnerable ships in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, and to deter and disrupt piracy.

Since EU NAFVOR launched Operation ATALANTA, only one in nine pirate attacks has been successful, compared to one in six a year ago.

However, so far 14 nations have sent warships to the region and for the first time since World War 2, commercial ships sailing in convoy escorted by warships have become a common sight. And not since the days of the Suez Canal crisis or the first Gulf War, has there been so much military activity in the Gulf of Aden.

Piracy hot spots

Several global piracy hot spots have been identified in recent years. By far, the most cases of piracy still occur off the coast of Somalia. The waters of South East Asia and the Indian sub-continent are also highly prone to pirate activity, particularly in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, around Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam.
In African waters, the other hot spots are on the Nigerian coast in the vicinity of the Niger Delta oil fields, Ghana, and Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. The northern coast line of South America, particularly near Brazil, Venezuela and Colombia has also been plagued by piracy.

Increasing attacks, rising ransoms

Nonetheless, the Piracy Reporting Centre (PRC) of the International Chamber of Commerce’s (ICC) International Maritime Bureau (IMB) says attacks are on the increase. The latest quarterly report just released by the PRC shows that the number of attacks for the first nine months of this year, namely 306, has already surpassed the total of 293 attacks for last year.

PRC statistics show that in the first nine months of 2009, 114 vessels were boarded, 34 vessels hijacked and 88 vessels came under fire. A total of 661 crew members were taken hostage, 12 were kidnapped, six killed and eight have been reported missing. To this must be added the billions of dollars in ships’ and cargo values, insurance costs and payouts, and ransom payments.

The only good news is that the number of third-quarter attacks this year has decreased compared to the first and second quarter, but that can be attributed to the disruption caused by unfavourable sea and weather conditions brought on by the monsoon season that is now over. Since its end, attacks have risen sharply once more.

Moving into northern seas

Another emerging trend seems to be the occurrence of pirate attacks in waters around Eastern Europe and Russia, or on ships affecting countries from that region. For one, there was the puzzling case of the Arctic Sea ship.

But a more worrying trend is the appearance of piracy in northern – particularly European – waters. Even in the landlocked Caspian Sea, pirates operating off the coast of Kazakhstan in August opened fire on a fishing vessel and killing a crew member, boarded and stole equipment off the vessel before making off.

The case of the Arctic Sea has European authorities concerned that a more sophisticated form of piracy at sea is spreading to European waters.

The third quarter report of the PRC also showed that Somali pirates have extended their reach to the southern region of the Red Sea, the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits and the East Coast of Oman.

Demonstrating this trend is the most recent case of the Chinese cargo ship De Xin Hai with a crew of 25, which was en route from Richards Bay, South Africa to India with a load of 76 000 tonnes of coal when pirates seized her 700 nautical miles out to sea, under the noses of the international flotilla.

Last reports said the pirates were moving the vessel towards the Somali coast where another 120 hostages and several ships are awaiting ransom money in exchange for being released. This was the first time a vessel had been hijacked by pirates so far out to sea, well beyond the 300 nautical mile coastal corridor being patrolled where ships have some degree of protection.

A trend to operate farther out to sea and strike over much longer distances – thus spreading the patrolling naval ships over a far greater area and making them less effective – is also seen in the fact that the pirates are using several converted large fishing vessels as mother ships from which they attack their prey in smaller, high-speed boats.
Several of these mother ships – long, white stern trawlers of Russian origin with names such as Burum Ocean, Arena or Athena – have been photographed from the air.

Attacks farther south

Contributing to the spread of warships over a greater area is the fact that recent attacks linked to the Somali piracy theatre have also occurred farther south. On 22 October, pirates attempted unsuccessfully to hijack the Italian-flagged ro-ro cargo vessel, the MV Jolly Rosso, 400 nautical miles east of Mombassa, Kenya.

Almost at the same time, pirates attacked and boarded the Panamanian-flagged bulk carrier, MV Al Khaliq, 180 nautical miles west of Seychelles. When last heard of, the pirates were still on board.

This attack has also prompted China to promise stronger action, with warnings that she would not tolerate attacks on Chinese ships.

The insurance nightmare

It is particularly the major insurers of ships and cargoes which are feeling the financial pressure of piracy and are subsequently taking the lead in trying to come to terms with the problem and find appropriate responses for it.

Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS), a leading insurer, released its latest study in June, in which it suggested its clients should adapt their approach to marine insurance, as the threat of piracy off the Horn of Africa continues to grow. Allianz also called for a greater and more co-ordinated international response to this problem.
The AGCS study released in June and entitled, “Piracy: An ancient risk with modern faces”, suggests that special ‘war’ insurance policies should be used to meet the needs of ships in high-risk areas.

Terrorism, conflict & strategic global balances

Already in 2006, a study called "Piracy – Threat At Sea  –  A Risk Analysis", undertaken by German insurance company, the Munich Re Group, in conjunction with the IMB, and still regarded as very relevant, noted the following: “Of late, piracy has increasingly been linked with terrorist attacks at sea."

The world’s cargo is 80% moved by sea. In most cases, it has to pass through a narrow body of water, such as the Straits of Malacca or the Suez Canal, at least once during its journey. Even a partial blockage of these passages would have a serious impact on world trade and give rise to additional costs in the order of billions.

The study further points out the threat of international terrorism connected to piracy. It says, according to the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), al-Qaeda’s intention is to disrupt maritime trade as the backbone of the modern global economy.

“If a primitive nuclear bomb or radioactive substances” were to fall into the hands of this terrorist network, according to the Institute, it would use this weapon in a major port or ocean strait.

According to a Western intelligence source, al-Qaeda has its own naval manual with entries showing which points to target on a vessel, how to attach limpet mines, how to fire rockets from a motorboat travelling at high speed, and how to transform gas tankers into floating bombs.

Global conflict / tensions implicated

The case of the Arctic Sea underlined much of what was stated in the Munich re Group/IMB study in respect of threats to international strategic balances and interests and the threat of terrorism. While it was initially reported that the Arctic Sea carried a load of timber to Algeria, considerable speculation later followed concerning its cargo.
One theory held that the ship carried a secret cargo of Russian missiles destined for Iran as part of a secret military trade deal, and that Israel got wind of the deal and, in an undercover operation, hijacked the vessel in an attempt to seize the missiles.

This, it was said, explained why the Russian Navy became so determined to find the vessel and return its international crew and cargo under much secrecy to Russia.
Another theory held that al-Qaeda was behind the hijacking, seeking to seize the missiles for itself.

While the incident remains shrouded in mystery and secrecy, Nick Davis, chief executive of the Merchant Maritime Warfare Centre – a London- and Yemen-based security firm – expressed skepticism that all the facts of the case would ever be uncovered in light of the complex international politics and diplomatic sensitivities that had emerged already.

Politicised piracy

Another trend concerns the reasons and justification offered by pirates for their activities, with pirates increasingly placing their actions within a geopolitical context.
Somalian pirates – who love giving media interviews – claim that many among them are former honest fishermen. They say that with the collapse of government and authority in their country, foreign fishing fleets exploited the lawless vacuum that was created by fishing illegally in Somali waters, eventually pushing aside Somali fishermen and denying them a living.

Separatist groups operating in the Niger Delta oil fields of Nigeria have frequently claimed that the inhabitants of the region are receiving no benefits from Nigeria’s oil riches and that is the motive behind their secessionist demands. The acts of piracy are used to fund their cause and draw international attention to it, they say.

Non-responsive authorities

Finally, another problem is that local authorities – naval, police, port and marine – in countries where there are high levels of pirate activity, often are unable to respond to distress calls from ships or, quite often, simply do not care.

Last Wednesday, when eight armed pirates attacked a general cargo ship off the coast of Guinea, the ship’s bridge tried to contact port control in Conakry, but received no response.

In Somalia, there simply is no government and no port or marine authority that can or will respond.

Most of the worst affected countries rely on foreign naval intervention, as long as it occurs outside their territorial waters. Inside their territorial waters, it seems, it is too embarrassing that others have to intervene.

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